After negotiations in Istanbul, Russia appears to be changing its course in Ukraine and is now suggesting a partial withdrawal from Ukraine.
Russia is set to make major changes to its military strategy in Ukraine now that the first phase of the war has been “largely successful.” Although Russia fired rockets again this weekend at the western city of Lviv and the capital Kyiv, the Russians seem to have given up on a serious siege on Kyiv.
Russian General and Deputy Chief of Staff Sergei Rudskoi said on Friday that his country had managed to weaken the Ukrainian armed forces, allowing Russia to focus on the “main goal: the liberation of the Donbas.”
The announcement came out of the blue and also raises many questions. The Russian military targets that Rudskoi referred to are quite different from what President Vladimir Putin claimed until last week. Putin wanted to ‘demilitarize’ and ‘denazify’ Ukraine. At the same time, the fighting and Russian troop movements clearly indicated that Russia was not only aiming at conquering the east of Ukraine, but also planned to overthrow the Ukrainian government in Kyiv. It now appears that, at least that is what the Russian army top wants the world to believe, that the battle around Kyiv was a diversionary maneuver.
The Russian army is in dire straits
In any case, what is clear is that the Russians have adapted their strategy to the situation. The Russian army is in dire straits: material losses are enormous, and the army is barely making any territorial gains. In recent days, the Ukrainian army has even managed to recapture a number of villages. The war experience of the Ukrainian military is increasing day by day and new and more and more effective weapons from the West are on the way.
Russia claims that the losses are not too bad and published the official death toll on the Russian side for the first time on Friday: 1351 dead and 3,825 injured. The actual number of Russian deaths is believed to be much higher, but also lower than the Ukrainian government’s estimates. A striking number of high-ranking Russian soldiers also fell in the battle: on Saturday the seventh and also the highest-ranking general was killed since the battle began.
By adjusting military targets, Russia may be trying to avoid losing face. At the same time, the Russians want to strengthen their position in Eastern Ukraine; not only in the Donbas, but also in the area around the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Russia wants to create a strip connecting Russian-conquered Crimea with separatist-controlled areas in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s position will then still be stronger than before the invasion, and Putin can then sell the war as a success.
A referendum on the self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic
Separatist leader Leonid Pasechnik said on Sunday that he will call a referendum “as soon as possible” where citizens could vote on whether the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic should merge with Russia.
However, the question is whether the Russians will be allowed to withdraw to eastern Ukraine. The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kirilo Budanov, warned on Sunday that Russia is trying to divide Ukraine: “It is an attempt to create a North and South Korea in Ukraine.” He said Ukraine will dislodge all Russian troops as “the season of a full-blown Ukrainian guerrilla safari begins soon.” He said there is only one scenario left for the Russians: ‘how to survive’.
Biden’s slip of the tongue
US President Joe Biden increased the pressure on Russia last Saturday. We have to face that this battle is not going to be won in days or months, he said. Biden went further, suggesting that the Americans are pursuing a change of government in Russia, where there is no place for President Putin. “For God’s sake, this man can’t stay in power,” Biden said. The ruling sparked outrage, including among French President Emmanuel Macron. The Russians have accused the US government of meddling in Russia for a long time, and Biden confirmed the Russian suspicions with his statement. Macron said he “wouldn’t use that kind of wording” because he wants to remain in talks with Putin.
It may have been the umpteenth slip of the tongue by Biden. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday that Biden’s words have been misinterpreted, meaning that Putin “will not be given the power to wage war against Ukraine or any other country.” “We have no strategy for a change of power in Russia or anywhere else,” Blinken said. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed with this statement.